The unvested RSUs you would forfeit by leaving are not free money. They are risky, illiquid single-stock exposure. Put both offers on the same scale, net of forfeitures, over four years.
Current job: comp, unvested equity, and the refresher you expect.
New offer: comp, sign-on, RSU package, and cliff risk.
Hopping is the clear move on comp alone.
| Year | Stay | Hop | Hop − Stay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | £286,167 | £266,500 | -£19,667 |
| Year 2 | £308,817 | £358,347 | +£49,530 |
| Year 3 | £332,502 | £368,911 | +£36,409 |
| Year 4 | £277,883 | £379,882 | +£101,999 |
Hop wins by a clear margin even after forfeited equity. Move unless non-comp factors weigh heavily.
Illustrative figures only. The model assumes target bonuses pay, refreshers continue, and stock prices grow at the entered rate. Real outcomes depend on performance, retention, and market direction. For your specific situation, consult a qualified adviser.
Worth carries the four-year comp maths into every job offer and refresher cycle. Unvested risk, cliff risk, growth uncertainty, all in one view. Join the waitlist.
They probably will, but they are discretionary and depend on year-one performance. Adding them lets the hop scenario inherit assumptions that have not been earned. The four-year frame is the contracted equity. If new refreshers materialise, that is upside on top of the answer here.
If you leave the new job before the cliff, all the new equity is worth zero. Tenure averages around two years in tech. A twelve-month cliff with high attrition risk means the hop case is more fragile than the headline number. If you are not confident you will stay past the cliff, the stay scenario gets a hidden safety premium.
You can change it. By default we assume equal growth so the comparison isolates the comp structure, not your stock-picking conviction. If you believe one stock will outperform the other, dial the assumption. Remember that most active stock predictions do not survive contact with reality.
Benefits (health, pension or 401(k) match, ESPP), promotion velocity, work-life cost, commute, learning opportunity, network effects. The pure comp answer is one input. If the comp difference is under ten per cent, the non-comp factors usually win.